TL:DR
A website claims a TSW4 will release in September, and these claims are substantiated somewhat with a variety of evidence but lack anything concrete.
Recently a French language video game website released an article containing some suspiciously specific details relevant to a claimed upcoming fourth edition of the TSW franchise.
Normally I would cast these claims aside as bogus, however in this instance there is considerable evidence to support the claims the author makes. Still, take everything you see here with a large pinch of salt- nothing is confirmed at all.
As a side note, I will not be commenting on the value or worth of any potential new game until an official confirmation or more evidence/information becomes available, as there is simply too little to go off at this stage. Additionally, I have had no contact with Dovetail Games (DTG from here on) ever, am not in any contracts with them and won't be for the foreseeable future. That is to say Dovetail has no editorial control of any of my work and my opinions are always honest and my own.
What does the article claim?
Train Sim World 4 will release on 26 September 2023 and be available for preorder from 22 August 2023.
Train Sim World 4 will cost at least €40. If this is true it will cost at least a little more than most routes, ie >£30, U$40 and A$60 (this factors Steam regional pricing differences).
Train Sim World 4 'will have a multitude of additional content ... at least 100 of them.'
What evidence supports the article?
The roadmap has only four upcoming releases- the German Locomotive from DTG, a US pack from Skyhook, Preston to Blackpool from JustTrains and the BR420 from TrainSim-Germany. DTG having only one upcoming product, and more importantly no routes in development is very unusual and only previously seen in the lead up to TSW3's announcement. Their extensive route-building team must be doing something, and an unannounced new game certainly fits that bill.
DTG have not shut this down. One would have expected if this rumour was baseless DTG would smother it quickly. This has not happened, and DTG have let a 10-page forum discussion continue with no interference.
No ambassadors have seriously discussed the article. I could be over-analysing this one, but I am almost certain DTG ambassadors (think TheBritishAce or MegaSim) have a non-disclosure agreement that might prevent them from discussing certain topics, potentially including this one publically.
Maik from TrainSim-Germany, when probed, did not deny its existence. Not much more to say. He did say however that UE5 was very unlikely as it would mean rebuilding almost all previous assets.
DTG just recruited a lot more beta-testers- potentially to test this new game.
The website in question has previously leaked games with high accuracy statements, and it is confusing why they would waste time on such a niche market such as Train Simulation without a reason.
TSW3 will come off Xbox Game Pass on 1 September, just as TSW2 came off Game Pass a few weeks before 3 released.
Is there any evidence to the contrary?
Not as such, but this alone does not confirm TSW4's existence. The largest piece of evidence against TSW4 may just be a lack of concrete evidence for it.
What do I think?
I believe the evidence for TSW4 is substantial enough to expect some kind of update or even new title in the coming months. I am not sure what to think about the expected price or release date, as there is no evidence to support these claims. If 22 August comes around with no announcement, I would (obviously) think less of truthfulness the article. I believe any new update/title will not be to UE5 due to technical challenges.
I also believe it is most likely that if anything this will be a rebrand of TSW3 to TSW4- think Rush Hour for TSW2, which had similar core updates and new features rolled into the same title, or like the previous yearly name change of Train Sim Classic.
What next?
We play the waiting game. There are several possibilities, and I will make videos/blog posts as appropriate to cover any updates in this story.
These possibilities are:
The game/update is announced sometime between now and 22 August, and the article is correct.
The game/update is announced and released sometime after the article claims.
No new game/update is announced at all.
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